Blackjack is one of the few casino games where smart play can make a real difference. It’s fast, strategic and when played correctly, offers some of the best odds on the floor. But what do those odds actually look like? How much does skill matter? And how can you use the numbers to your advantage?
In this guide, we’ll break down the blackjack odds, show you how the math works and explain how player decisions affect your chances of winning. We’ll also look at detailed charts comparing house edge, payouts and hand probabilities so you can walk into Riverwind Casino with the confidence of a seasoned player.
What Do We Mean by Blackjack Odds?
When people talk about “blackjack odds,” they’re referring to the probability of winning a hand compared to the dealer, as well as the house’s long-term statistical advantage (also known as the house edge).
- Players win about 42% of all hands.
- Dealers win around 49%.
- The remaining 9% end in a tie, or “push.”
Played correctly, the house edge hovers near 0.5%, meaning that over time, the casino keeps about fifty cents of every $100 wagered. That’s one of the best returns of any game on the floor. Blackjack consistently ranks among the best casino games for odds for players who use proper strategy.
You can improve those odds further by understanding when to hit, stand or double down and by choosing tables that pay 3:2 on a natural blackjack.
Odds of Winning Blackjack by Hand Total
The blackjack odds chart below shows your approximate odds of winning, pushing or losing based on your final hand total when you play with solid basic blackjack strategy.
| Player Hand Total | Winning Odds | Pushing Odds | Losing Odds | House Edge |
| 21 (Blackjack) | ~100% (if dealer doesn’t have blackjack) | 0% | 0% | 0% (pays 3:2) |
| 20 | ~92% | ~8% | ~0% | ~0.5% |
| 19 | ~85% | ~8% | ~7% | ~0.5% |
| 18 | ~77% | ~8% | ~15% | ~1% |
| 17 (Soft or Hard) | ~70% | ~8% | ~22% | ~1% |
| 16 | ~60% | ~8% | ~32% | ~1.5% |
| 15 | ~50% | ~8% | ~42% | ~2% |
| 14 | ~42% | ~8% | ~50% | ~2% |
| 13 | ~35% | ~8% | ~57% | ~2.5% |
| 12 | ~30% | ~8% | ~62% | ~3% |
| 11 | ~50% (double down) | 0% | ~50% | ~1% |
| 10 | ~50% (double down) | 0% | ~50% | ~1% |
| 9 | ~42% (double down) | 0% | ~58% | ~1.5% |
| 8 or less | ~30% | 0% | ~70% | ~4% |
Blackjack Hand Probability Chart (Player vs. Dealer)
To better understand blackjack odds, it helps to see how often players and dealers finish with specific hand totals. The chart below breaks down the probability of each blackjack hand, showing how both sides most often land between 17 and 20, the range that drives most blackjack outcomes.
| Final Hand Total | Player Probability | Dealer Probability | Notes |
| 21 (Blackjack or via hits) | ~4.8% (natural), ~7.4% total | ~4.8% (natural), ~7.4% total | Includes naturals and 21 reached with hits. |
| 20 | ~10.0% | ~17.6% | Dealer often lands 20 with 10-card combos. |
| 19 | ~8.6% | ~13.3% | Common dealer stopping point. |
| 18 | ~7.5% | ~13.1% | “Soft 18” frequently stands for both player and dealer. |
| 17 | ~8.1% | ~14.6% | Dealers must stand; players sometimes hit soft 17. |
| 16 | ~7.6% | ~5.9% | Weak player hand; dealer often forced to hit and bust. |
| 15 | ~7.2% | ~5.0% | Players often risk losing from here unless dealer busts. |
| 14 | ~6.7% | ~4.8% | Common bust setup when hitting. |
| 13 | ~6.5% | ~4.3% | Usually hit by players; low winning probability. |
| 12 | ~6.2% | ~3.8% | Player’s first risky “decision” hand. |
| Bust (>21) | ~28.0% | ~29.0% | Average bust frequency across all scenarios. |
Blackjack Side-Bet Odds
Blackjack side bets add fun and variety but carry higher risk and a larger house edge. Here’s how the math stacks up:
| Side Bet | Payouts | Approx. House Edge |
| Perfect Pairs | Mixed Pair 5:1 • Colored Pair 12:1 • Perfect Pair 25:1 | 2%–11% |
| 21 + 3 | Flush 5:1 • Straight 10:1 • Three of a Kind 30:1 • Straight Flush 40:1 • Suited Trips 100:1 | 3%–7% |
| Insurance | Pays 2:1 if dealer has blackjack | ~7% |
| Bet the Set | Pair 10:1 • Suited Pair 20:1 | 8% + |
Remember, side bets are best treated as entertainment. They add excitement, but they don’t improve your long-term odds.
Dealer Bust Odds
Knowing when the dealer is most likely to bust helps you decide when to hit or stay.
| Dealer Upcard | Odds of Busting | Odds of Not Busting | Pushing Odds | Comments |
| 2 | ~35% | ~65% | ~8% | Weak opening; dealer likely to bust. |
| 3 | ~37% | ~63% | ~8% | Slightly riskier for dealer than a 2. |
| 4 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Strong bust potential. |
| 5 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Dealer’s weakest position. |
| 6 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Classic “dealer bust” card. |
| 7 | ~26% | ~74% | ~8% | Safer for dealer. |
| 8 | ~24% | ~76% | ~8% | Good dealer card. |
| 9 | ~23% | ~77% | ~8% | Advantage swings to dealer. |
| 10 | ~23% | ~77% | ~8% | Low bust chance; strong hand. |
| Ace | ~17% | ~83% | ~8% | Dealer’s best card. |
Tip: when the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6, the odds are in your favor, stay conservative and let them bust themselves.
How Rules Affect Blackjack Odds
Not all blackjack tables are created equal. Small rule variations can shift the house edge in either direction.
Here’s a breakdown of how common rule changes impact your odds:
| Rule Change | Effect on Player Odds |
| Dealer stands on soft 17 | +0.20% in favor of player |
| Dealer hits on soft 17 | –0.22% (advantage to house) |
| Double after split allowed | +0.17% (better for player) |
| Re-splitting Aces allowed | +0.08% (better for player) |
| No re-splitting Aces | –0.08% (house advantage) |
| Blackjack pays 6:5 instead of 3:2 | –1.39% (house advantage) |
| Fewer decks (single deck) | +0.48% (better for player) |
Blackjack Odds FAQs
- What is the 1/3, 2, 6 strategy in blackjack?
It’s a betting progression where you raise wagers after wins, one unit first, two next, then six. It’s meant to ride winning streaks but doesn’t alter the actual odds. - What is the average return in blackjack?
Played with perfect basic strategy, blackjack returns about 99.5% to the player, meaning the house edge is only 0.5%. - What is the 777 rule in blackjack?
It refers to drawing three sevens in one hand, which some promotions reward with bonus payouts. It’s rare but memorable when it happens. - How does the dealer have an advantage in blackjack?
Because players act first, if you bust, the dealer wins instantly. Even if they bust after, the timing creates the house edge. - Do blackjack odds change with the number of players?
No. The number of people at the table doesn’t affect your odds. Every player faces the dealer independently.
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